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Election predictions

During the last election, Colby Cosh collected various predictions of the outcome into a neat little table. I was way off, but I console myself by noting that the only two to score worse than me were Mark Steyn and Cosh himself.

This year, Cosh has his prediction out early, and it looks like he's learned his lesson. He's predicting minimal change, with the Liberals once again in charge of a minority government. It must be terrible to lose faith in your fellow citizens.

I haven't quite reached that point yet. I see Liberal support as weak and fading, while resistance to the Tories is crumbling due to their well-run campaign of middle-of-the-road, inoffensive pronouncements. I think Stephen Harper will be our next Prime Minister. Here's my numbers, ripped from the newspapers of the future:

Conservatives: 130
Liberals: 103
Bloc: 54
NDP: 21
It would take a long time to explain the methods I have used to come to this conclusion, but be assured they are well-grounded in the very latest in statistical analysis and probability theory. Really. You can take these numbers to the bank.

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Comments

Yeah, mine were along the lines of your prediction (hope?) too. But let's not forget one thing. The Liberals haven't mounted their campaign yet! The final stretch is traditionally when they turn everything around. My cut on what's happened to date and the outlook:

http://www.thiscanada.com/2005/12/21/liberal-election-strategy/

FWIW.

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