Giuliani vs Gore
That's who I think will face off in the Presidential elections of 2008. I know it's a year and a half away but I feel pretty confident with my prediction. Here's my back-of-the-envelope analysis:
Republicans: There's not a lot of strong candidates here. Basically there's Giuliani and everybody else. McCain will flop in the same way he did in 2000. Gingrich has that stale smell of the 90's clinging to him. All the rest are nobodies that won't get any traction unless they happen to find a hot issue.
Giuliani is pretty liberal on social issues, and this is making him some enemies as the race gets closer. But this is actually a strength, because these issues have normally cost Republicans votes in the general election. Giuliani is also seen as a strong leader that can get things done, and with the bad atmosphere in Congress today that quality will be seen as vital. Most importantly, after their loss in 2006, Republicans desperately want to win again. And they'll be willing to nominate a candidate that they may not completely agree with if he can bring them victory.
Democrats: This is a little more difficult. There is a general feeling that the next election is the Democrats 'turn', so it's attracting a lot of strong candidates.
I think Hillary has too much baggage to make it. As the front-runner declaring so early, she's going to take an enormous amount of abuse and be subjected to incredible scrutiny before the first primary. I've been watching her over the years -- knowing full well what her ultimate intentions were -- and I have to admit she's done a good job straddling every issue. But this becomes a problem in that people have the perception that she's an empty shell: guided by the best political advice available solely for the goal of becoming President. And in this case, the perception is reality.
Obama is a good-looking (so I'm told) black man in the Senate. For most people he's an empty page, which gets you pretty far. But it can't get you to the White House. Whoever advised him to run after only two years in the Senate did him a great disservice. He's young, and has lots of time to build more of a reputation and get more allies before aiming at the big prize. But after this he'll be seen as overly ambitious, and will have squandered all the goodwill he's getting now.
Gore hasn't declared yet, and he won't for some time. But someone as ambitious as him sees the perfect opportunity to make his comeback onto the big stage. There is nothing that will stop him from running. Nothing. He may even miss some of the early primaries, but when he arrives he will seem fresh. The halo he's been polishing since he lost in 2000 will dazzle the press and primary voters. Expect to hear many comparisons during this period to Nixon, who lost in a squeaker in 1960, but came back in 1968 to trounce the party that had mired the country in a war they couldn't win. The other candidates will have spent at least six months tearing each other apart and taking abuse from the press. No one will look very good. But at that moment Al will look like a saint, an wise scientist, and a movie star all rolled into one. He's not, of course, but it'll take some time for the press and his opponents to recalibrate their attacks on him. But it'll be too late. He'll coast to victory. Gore has a tremendously loyal following, and you can be sure he's spent the last six years courting anyone who can help him. He's unstoppable -- at least for the Democratic nomination.
Sorry, Hill.
And who will win? I think Giuliani will. But maybe that's hope talking, I'm not sure.
Comments
The US is pretty evenly split between Dems & Reps. The next president will be the one who sway the most voters from the other side while still rallying the base out to vote. I am not sure Hillary will take the ticket - she is very unappealing in many ways, furthermore, she's far too polarizing. I am not sure the Dems want to go down that road. Obama, he's the flavour of the week, and I can't take him seriously at this point. Its just too early to call. For the Reps, Rudy polls well out in the wider world but doesn't charge up the rep base - in fact, I would suggest he would be the candidate most likely to induce the base to stay home on election day. He's far too progressive to carry the ticket. For the Reps - I'm betting on a dark horse to take the nomination. I think Mike Hucklebee is the man to watch. He has a low profile (for now) but an outstanding record as governor from Arkansas. He's conservative in the right ways but also surprisingly progressive in others. Besides he is a natural to draw the big money men in the south.
Posted by: Kateland | January 28, 2007 05:44 AM